Two Saturdays Down… Here’s Where We Stand
The preseason is about projection. Once the games begin, projection has to meet reality.
These rankings are meant to blend the two. While this remains for the most part a true power ranking, I’m adding a slight predictive flare to these rankings. Quarterbacks matter… quite a lot… and sometimes I feel that isn’t always accurately reflected in other power rankings that I read. Talent at every position matters to some extent, but if you don’t have a bad man distributing from behind center, you won’t ever reach the mountaintop in this sport.
Heading into Week 3, I feel particularly confident about my Top 12. There are debates within that group—Texas has overtaken Ohio State after their 24-23 win in Austin on Saturday, while Oregon has slipped from its lofty preseason position after a disappointing start—but I still view these 12 as the strongest collection of teams nationally.
After that, the picture becomes much less certain.
The teens and twenties are best viewed as quadrants of teams we’re still learning about. Some have elite defenses but unresolved offensive questions. Others possess high-end talent but haven’t played to their preseason expectations. And several teams that entered the season outside my highest tier are beginning to provide evidence that their ceilings are substantially higher than I anticipated. At this point in September, such is to be expected. We still have a lot to learn.
Missouri is one of my most notable early risers. I projected the Tigers to finish just 6–6 in my SEC Preview, but Austin Simmons has given me reason to reconsider the ceiling of that offense. He threw some very impressive balls in Week 2 against Kansas and gives the Tigers a much higher ceiling than I initially considered.
Utah is another riser after their 43-10 demolition of Arkansas in Week 2. I don’t expect the Hogs to have a good season whatsoever, but the Utes demonstrated that with quarterbacks Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin, they have up to two legitimate rushing AND passing weapons on the field at any given time.
Conversely, Washington has been one of my biggest disappointments relative to my preseason expectations. Demond Williams looks like a munchkin in the pocket, and he’s not big or physical enough to consistently take advantage of his biggest asset: his legs.
It goes without saying that Clemson deserves to free fall out of my Power 40. I was relatively high on the Tigers in the preseason, based mostly on a hold over of talent for the Tigers that is still more impressive on paper than the majority of the ACC. With that being said, it’s clearly a new era of football in Tiger Town. The QB play for Clemson has been pathetic so far.. and there’s no reason for me to expect considerable improvement in the coming weeks.
Every week, the preseason prior gets a little weaker. Every week, the body of actual 2026 evidence gets a little stronger. And every week, the Power 40 will represent my best assessment of the 40 strongest teams in college football—not based solely on what they’ve accomplished, but on who I believe they are now and where the evidence says they’re heading next.
1. Texas
Texas earned the top spot after rallying from 23–3 down entering the fourth quarter to beat Ohio State 24–23. Arch Manning still has room to become more consistent, but his fourth-quarter response was exactly what you want from a quarterback with championship expectations. The roster remains as complete as any in the country.
2. Ohio State
The Buckeyes were actually the better team for much of the night in Austin, which is why a one-point road loss doesn’t meaningfully change my view of their overall power. Julian Sayin threw for 278 yards and Jeremiah Smith exploded for 164 receiving yards. My biggest question (besides Ryan Day and his conservative nature in big games) is who else will step up for the Buckeyes besides Jeremiah Smith? This team is supposedly loaded from top to bottom with weapons… I expect to see them utilized in a more balanced nature the next time they play a big game.
3. Notre Dame
Notre Dame has looked every bit like the national-title contender I expected, following a 41–13 win over Wisconsin with a 52–0 pitsnoggling of Rice. CJ Carr’s continued development gives an already complete roster an increasingly dangerous quarterback component. With that being said, the Irish have yet to reveal the presence of a dynamic weapon on the outside. If any of their receivers can become a clear alpha for Carr to rely on, the Irish could soon find themselves even higher in this ranking.
4. Georgia
There hasn’t been much drama for the Dawgs: Georgia has simply overwhelmed the teams in front of it. Kirby Smart heard all the rumblings that he takes the foot off the gas against inferior non-conference opponents and decided he was going to lay a 70-burger on the Hilltoppers this past Saturday. I’m not sure this result means anything in terms of Georgia’s future placement in this ranking… but it certainly isn’t going to affect its present one.
5. Miami
The Canes have been ruthlessly efficient through two weeks, beating Stanford 45–6 and Florida A&M 77–7. Despite the fact that some high school teams have faced tougher competition through two weeks, nothing we’ve seen has challenged my preseason belief that this is a title contender.
6. Oregon
The 39–31 loss at Oklahoma State is concerning… to say the least. Particularly because Oregon’s defensive front has been immensely disappointing relative to my expectations. I’m not abandoning a roster that I viewed as one of the country’s best after two games, though, and Dante Moore remains a high-end quarterback talent. Oregon stays firmly among my national elite despite the early stumble.
7. LSU
LSU has been one of the strongest confirmations of my preseason evaluation. The 51–10 destruction of Clemson was emphatic, and the Tigers followed it with a comfortable 45–14 win over Louisiana Tech. This looks like a roster capable of competing with anyone in the SEC… and the country. This Saturday will tell us for sure where this team truly stands nationally.
8. Alabama
The Tide have looked extremely impressive, scoring 48 against East Carolina before going on the road and beating Kentucky 45–17. Bama ran for 233 yards at Kroger Field, including 104 from Daniel Hill, and the physicality of this team has stood out early. Kane Wommack has become a personality as the defensive coordinator… and things appear to really be coming together for a playoff run in Tuscaloosa.
9. Indiana
IU hasn’t faced the kind of test some teams around it have, but it has done exactly what an elite team should do against inferior opposition: dominate. The Hoosiers have scored 107 points over their first two games while allowing just 16, so there isn’t much reason yet to move the defending champs up or down.
10. Texas A&M
The Aggies have looked powerful through two weeks, and the 48–20 victory over Arizona State provided more useful evidence than their opening blowout. Marcel Reed remains a question mark for me, but A&M’s defense produced four turnovers and two pick-sixes against the Sun Devils. If Mike Elko’s dynamite defensive scheme and the phenoms the Aggies have in the trenches on either side can carry them, they can win a couple more games than I expected in the preseason.
11. USC
USC is 3–0 and has been explosive offensively, scoring 42, 39 and 49 points. The Trojans haven’t faced an opponent that tells us exactly how high their ceiling is yet, but Lincoln Riley’s offense appears dangerous enough to keep USC firmly in playoff contention.
12. Tennessee
The Vols are one of my early season favorites after following a dominant opener with an impressive 45–24 road victory at Georgia Tech. I’m high on stud freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon’s long-term upside, but the rushing attack has been the early engine—DeSean Bishop ran for 147 yards against Tech as Tennessee piled up 299 on the ground.
13. Ole Miss
The Rebs offense looks as dangerous as expected, and Trinidad Chambliss has demonstrated why he may be the best QB in the country. The concern is the defense after multiple breakdowns against Louisville; the secondary is the primary unit separating Ole Miss from the teams above it.
14. Michigan
Michigan remains extremely difficult to evaluate because the defense looks elite while the offense looks nowhere close to finished. The Wolverines “survived” Western Michigan and then beat Oklahoma 17–10 behind another excellent defensive effort. Bryce Underwood’s running ability was important against the Sooners, but Michigan needs substantially more from the passing game to compete for a playoff bid.
15. Texas Tech
The Red Raiders haven’t looked like the runaway Big 12 favorite our preseason numbers suggested, but I’m deliberately exercising patience. Wins of 33–10 and 35–24 haven’t been dominant enough to strengthen Tech’s case, but two shaky victories aren’t enough for me to discard a loaded roster and a 12-0 preseason expectation.
16. Oklahoma
Much like Michigan, Oklahoma’s defense looks considerably closer to championship caliber than its offense. Scoring only 10 points in Ann Arbor exposed some limitations, with John Mateer finishing 17-of-33 for 189 yards, but losing a seven-point road game to Michigan isn’t enough for me to dramatically downgrade the Sooners. They’re going to be in a lot of close, painful games because of their elite defense. It will strictly come down to Mateer and OC Ben Arbuckle in terms of whether this team wins 6, 7, 8 or 9 games.
17. Florida
Florida is one of the teams whose ceiling intrigues me most. The Gators haven’t faced a major test yet, but I like the combination of improved playcalling, ELITE receiving talent and the steadiness Aaron Philo can provide at quarterback. If that translates against SEC competition, Florida could continue climbing.
18. Missouri
This is already one of my biggest changes of opinion from the preseason, when I projected Missouri to finish 6–6. Austin Simmons looked electric in the 38–21 win over Kansas, and I’m increasingly convinced I underestimated both him and the ceiling of this offense.
19. BYU
BYU followed its 63–7 opener by beating Arizona 28–17, giving us a more meaningful look at the Cougars. I still have some questions about the passing-game ceiling, but BYU’s physical identity and ability to control games make this a very difficult team to play. Head Coach Kalani Sitake has established a true culture and identity in Provo, which is becoming increasingly rarer in modern college football.
20. Utah
Utah is another significant early-season riser. The Utes have beaten Idaho 66–14 and Arkansas 43–10, and the physicality that has traditionally defined this program appears to be back at a very high level. Beating an SEC opponent by 33—even one I rated at the bottom of the league—is meaningful performance evidence.
21. Louisville
The Cards have a nasty defensive line and considerable talent at several key positions. Going to Nashville and losing 41–38 to Ole Miss did more to strengthen than weaken my evaluation, and Louisville responded by scoring 59 against a good FCS team in Villanova. Jeff Brohm’s schematic genius and legitimate roster athleticism gives this team a chance against anyone on its more-than-manageable schedule.
22. South Carolina
The Gamecocks have handled their early competition, but I’m still waiting for the offense specifically to convince me it can consistently threaten high-level opponents. LaNorris Sellers remains the player capable of changing that equation; his ceiling is the primary component of South Carolina’s ranking. The defense is relatively talented and very experienced, which could keep this team in the Top 25 of this ranking for much of the season.
23. SMU
SMU survived Florida State 27–24 before blowing out UC Davis, and Kevin Jennings remains the centerpiece of my evaluation. His combination of experience and playmaking gives SMU a relatively high floor even if I’m not ready to put the Mustangs in the playoff conversation.
24. Houston
Houston has quietly opened 2–0, beating Oregon State 33–20 before annihilating Southern 77–6. I’m encouraged by the direction of the program under Willie Fritz, although we need to see this against stronger competition before moving the Cougars much higher. A Friday night date with Texas Tech is sure to do wonders in influencing either the rise.. or the fall.. of the Cougars in this ranking next week.
25. Auburn
Auburn remains here largely because I still believe in the overall roster more than the early quarterback play. Quarterback Byrum Brown has been one of my bigger disappointments through two weeks, and the Tigers need more consistency there before I can entertain moving them back toward the Top 20.
26. Penn State
This is intentionally much lower than Penn State’s AP Ranking. The defense gives the Nittany Lions a solid floor, but I’m simply not convinced the overall team is among the country’s 20 strongest right now from an overall talent perspective. A 27–9 win at Temple didn’t do much to change that evaluation.
27. Iowa
Iowa continues to look like Iowa: defense, physicality and a willingness to win ugly. A 16–13 victory over Iowa State won’t generate much excitement, but the defense remains a unit I trust, and that keeps the Hawkeyes comfortably inside the Power 40.
28. Nebraska
Nebraska remains a team with enough roster upside to interest me, but I still need to see it consistently translate against stronger opponents. Anthony Colandrea is an upgrade at QB in terms of how he fits OC Dana Holgorsen’s scheme.
29. Virginia
Virginia has taken care of its early schedule, including hammering NC State 34-8 in Week 0. The Cavaliers are stout in the trenches and have experience in running QB Beau Pribula, which is enough to win most of the the games on their schedule.
30. Kansas State
Kansas State has started strongly by beating Nicholls 71-3 and Washington State 34–7. The Wildcats still possess many of the traits I trusted preseason, but this feels like the appropriate range until QB Avery Johnson establishes more consistency.
31. Arizona
Arizona’s 28–17 loss at BYU exposed some limitations, but it was competitive enough that I’m not making a dramatic adjustment. There’s still enough talent here for the Wildcats to remain a Top-40-caliber team, although the defensive ceiling needs to become clearer. Noah Fifita will carry this team on his back to one of the better bowls the Big 12 has to offer.
32. Washington
Washington may be the team I was most wrong about in the preseason. After a relatively pedestrian 24–10 Apple Cup win, the Huskies barely escaped Utah State 16–14 in Seattle, and the explosive offense I expected simply hasn’t materialized consistently. This is a substantial downgrade from where I had them in August. Demond Williams has not progressed as a passer like I hoped he would… and at this point I’m not sure that he ever will.
33. Boise State
Boise State’s 34–27 loss looks great in terms of pure power evaluation, particularly because the Broncos were competitive in Eugene. Add blowing out another very good Group of Six team in Memphis to the equation and suddenly Boise State looks like the clear favorite to make the playoff from the G6 level.
34. Pittsburgh
Pitt’s 12–7 win over UCF wasn’t pretty, but the Panthers allowed only seven points and demonstrated the defensive toughness that keeps Pat Narduzzi teams relevant. Add in the fact that they have a very interesting QB prospect in Mason Heintschel, and suddenly the Panthers seem like a potential dark horse in the ACC.
35. Virginia Tech
The Hokies looked impressive in Week 2 with a 44–21 victory over Old Dominion. I’m still interested in Ethan Grunkemeyer’s development, and there’s enough talent under James Franklin for Virginia Tech to climb considerably in this ranking as the season progresses.
36. UCLA
UCLA handled San Diego State 28–10 in Week 2 and has become a team that I’m higher on than the national consensus. Nico Iamaleava’s talent combined with the sharp coaching of Bob Chesney is the biggest reason. If UCLA can consistently put Nico in favorable situations, there’s room for the Bruins to rise.
37. Arizona State
The 48–20 loss at Texas A&M was decisive, but I’m not going to punish Arizona State excessively for losing to my No. 10 team on the road. Cutter Boley threw for 254 yards and two touchdowns but also had two interceptions returned for scores; reducing those catastrophic mistakes will be crucial.
38. Maryland
Maryland has taken care of business, including a 38–14 road win over UConn in Week 2. Malik Washington remains one of the young quarterbacks I’m particularly high on, and his development gives Maryland more upside than I think it receives credit for nationally.
39. Mississippi State
The Bulldogs were massively impressive in Week 2, pasting Minnesota 38-13 on the road. More importantly for MSU and Head Coach Jeff Lebby is that Kamario Taylor had a coming-out party of sorts. The young QB looks like the real deal… and the Bulldogs could have a meteoric rise coming in this ranking if Taylor continues his upward trajectory.
40. Oklahoma State
No team better demonstrates the difference between a résumé ranking and this Power 40. Oklahoma State deserves enormous credit for beating Oregon 39–31 behind 317 passing yards and 109 rushing yards from Drew Mestemaker, but the Cowboys also lost 24–10 to Tulsa one week earlier. One spectacular Saturday gets them into the Power 40; it doesn’t erase everything we saw before it. This team appears to be a massive wild card moving forward. Can they compete for a Big 12 title? Only time will tell.
